Cardano (ADA) has entered into a consolidation phase as the ETF decision deadline approaches. ADA on-chain activity and whale accumulation remain strong. ADA price hinges on ETF outcome, with key support at $0.72. Cardano price remains in a state of prolonged consolidation as the market eagerly awaits the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) imminent decision on a spot Cardano exchange-traded fund (ETF). Despite a 9% price surge earlier in May, ADA’s current pullback and sideways movement have cast uncertainty over its next move, especially as it trades near a critical support zone. Contrasting on-chain metrics and technical signals At the time of writing, ADA is hovering around $0.74, down approximately 2% in the past 24 hours, reflecting a noticeable decline in short-term momentum. Nevertheless, the broader picture tells a story of increased investor interest and heightened on-chain activity, driven primarily by optimism surrounding the potential approval of the Grayscale ADA ETF. As anticipation builds, the Cardano network has witnessed a marked spike in daily transactions, climbing from under 30,000 to nearly 50,000 in just a few weeks. This growing activity on-chain has also been mirrored by an uptick in Cardano’s transaction volume, which reached an impressive $684.6 million within the past 24 hours. At the same time, investor sentiment remains mixed, with Open Interest in ADA derivatives rising above $945 million while the funding rate dropped sharply, indicating cautious positioning among leveraged traders. Furthermore, technical signals continue to flash warning signs as ADA trades within a triangle pattern, suggesting a potential breakout or breakdown as price volatility tightens near the apex. Notably, the MACD crossover and the bearish histogram, signals the potential of a breakdown rather than a breakout. Cardano price forecast Going by the technical Cardano price analysis, close below the 200-day EMA, currently around $0.72, could trigger a more pronounced decline toward the $0.64 level, which last served as support in early May. However, should ADA defy the bears and close above the $0.84 resistance, a run towards the $1.12 level, last seen in December, could quickly materialise. Adding to the intrigue is the recent launch of Bitcoin DeFi on the Cardano blockchain, a development that has further expanded the network’s utility and may help sustain investor interest beyond the ETF hype. Charles Hoskinson, Cardano’s founder, has celebrated the integration as a milestone in blockchain interoperability, emphasising the network’s capacity to bridge Bitcoin’s security with Cardano’s advanced smart contracts. With Bitcoin holders now able to participate in lending, borrowing, and yield farming directly on Cardano, the ecosystem is expected to attract more liquidity and a broader user base in the coming months. Even so, the number of active Cardano investors has recently declined, with data from Artemis showing a steep drop from over 60,000 to just above 20,000 addresses, raising concerns about waning participation. This decrease in active users coincides with bearish indicators in the futures market, including a Taker Buy/Sell Ratio below 1, which underscores prevailing sell pressure. However, spot market activity remains somewhat supportive, as substantial ADA outflows from exchanges point to growing accumulation and long-term holding among retail and whale investors alike. In fact, over $57 million worth of ADA has left centralised platforms over the past week, marking the largest net outflow since early March and hinting at strengthening bullish conviction. Still, ADA finds itself wedged between significant liquidity levels near $0.74 and $0.78, creating a narrow range in which the next decisive price move could swing dramatically in either direction. As the May 29 SEC deadline approaches, the market appears to be at a crossroads, with either approval or delay likely to determine ADA’s short-term trajectory. If the ETF is approved, Cardano could quickly challenge the psychological $1 resistance, particularly as whales continue to accumulate and developers ramp up activity on-chain. However, a rejection or further delay may reverse recent transaction gains and reintroduce selling pressure, especially in the absence of immediate bullish catalysts. Ultimately, Cardano’s future now hinges on both regulatory clarity and its ability to convert heightened interest into sustained ecosystem growth.