Recently, a fanciful hypothesis has been circulating that artificial intelligence (AI) might have the potential to kill Bitcoin. This is a purely speculative hypothesis, meaning it is not based on concrete evidence but only on assumptions, which is probably circulating precisely due to the hype that has recently formed around AI. Summary The hypothesis of the clash between AI and Bitcoin Crypto and Bitcoin: the reduction of anonymity with AI The competition of fiat currency The improvement of payment systems AI will help Bitcoin The hypothesis of the clash between AI and Bitcoin This hypothesis is based on the concept that AI and Bitcoin (or cryptocurrencies) could come into conflict. Obviously, it is not about competing with each other, since they are two completely different technologies that do different things, but about possible interferences of the first on the second. In particular, one of the aspects of potential conflict is that of anonymity, given that in fact artificial intelligence can help trace anonymous transactions on public blockchains like that of Bitcoin. Another is the one related to the possible competition from the classic fiat currency against Bitcoin, once the utility of anonymity is significantly reduced. Finally, there is the one related to the possibility that AI could enable the creation of more efficient centralized payment systems than the current ones, capable of competing with Bitcoin. Well, all three of these potential contrasts might actually have only a minimal impact on the success of Bitcoin, given that the majority of its use is not influenced by these aspects. Crypto and Bitcoin: the reduction of anonymity with AI In fact, it is absolutely possible that AI could make it much easier to track on-chain transactions, even though they are anonymous. To tell the truth, this could even help the spread of Bitcoin, rather than hinder it, because it would make it increasingly compliant or close to the laws of the various countries. For example, if you check the trading volumes, in order to talk about concrete things and not just purely hypothetical assumptions, you immediately notice that the vast majority of crypto trading volumes occur on centralized platforms (the exchanges) that require KYC (i.e., identity verification). In other words, the vast majority of trades in BTC and cryptocurrencies do not occur anonymously, even if they are not recorded on the public blockchain. Furthermore, even when tokens are moved out of a platform with KYC, with anonymous on-chain transactions, it is already quite easy to trace them nowadays, without even needing to resort to artificial intelligence. Therefore, AI could really reduce the anonymity of on-chain transactions, but this rather than disadvantaging Bitcoin could even favor it. Also because large institutional investors, who move immense amounts, obviously do not do so anonymously, and they never will. The competition of fiat currency Instead, the idea that fiat currencies can compete with Bitcoin is completely wrong. In fact, Bitcoin is not used as a medium of exchange, so it is not used in competition with fiat currencies. Furthermore, fiat currencies are inflationary because the central banks that issue them and manage their monetary policy have the obligation to inflate them. Bitcoin does the exact opposite, meaning it tends to become deflationary over the decades, so much so that as an exchange currency it will be used less and less, because it is much less useful than fiat currencies from this point of view. Instead, it will be used more and more, primarily in financial markets, as a form of hedge against any excessively expansive monetary policies of central banks. It should not be forgotten that it is quite common for central banks to occasionally opt for excessively expansive monetary policies, and the fiat currency they issue cannot in any way be used as an alternative to Bitcoin from this point of view. In fact, those same excessively expansive monetary policies that help the value of BTC to grow, at the same time end up reducing the real value of fiat currency, which therefore behaves in exactly the opposite manner to Bitcoin in such contexts. The improvement of payment systems Precisely because Bitcoin is not a good transactional currency, the improvement of fiat payment systems will not negatively affect its use in financial markets as a hedge against excessively expansive monetary policies of central banks. In fact, to tell the truth, this could even help its exchanges by expanding the range of platforms that allow trading Bitcoin in fiat, and vice versa. Even if instead of fiat currencies the possible crypto competitors of Bitcoin are considered, nowadays there are already hundreds, if not thousands, and none seem even remotely capable of acting as a better hedge against the excessively expansive monetary policies of central banks. AI will help Bitcoin In light of all this, the hypothesis that artificial intelligence could have the potential to kill Bitcoin today seems like pure fantasy, lacking any concreteness. On the contrary, from a more precise and in-depth analysis, it clearly emerges that the use of AI could even help make Bitcoin more accepted within the traditional financial system, even more so than it already is now. The fact that it is not used as currency for payments is now practically irrelevant, because it has found another use, very important and increasingly widespread, in which its only true competitor is gold, or rather the financial derivatives of gold. AI could help Bitcoin become increasingly accepted in financial markets, perhaps even being accepted almost like gold. However, it will never compete with gold, because while the latter remains, and will probably always remain, a risk-off asset, Bitcoin is, and will probably always remain, a risk-on asset, meaning with greater volatility and greater risks for investors, but also greater potential gains.
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