This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe. You probably saw bitcoin’s latest price plummet, briefly falling below $86,000 for the first time since November. It comes as the Bybit hack and SEC moves grab headlines — not to mention the relentless non-crypto macro developments. Even before BTC’s drop, Bitfinex analysts laid out the scene. Bitcoin had mostly traded between $91,000 and $102,000 for weeks, rearing its head to a peak around $109,000 last month. “Bitcoin remains at a critical juncture after nearly 90 days of consolidation,” they explained. “As market participants await a catalyst, bitcoinʼs next major move will likely be dictated by macroeconomic trends and could be decisive.” Fast forward a day, and Compass Point analysts Ed Engel and Joe Flynn note that BTC’s latest drop means it has broken the $92,000 support level (the cost basis for holders who bought within the last six months). “Selling has accelerated as short-term holders are less likely to tolerate unrealized losses,” they explained. “$86,000 is the last line of defense before the air pocket of trading activity that took place between $77,000 to $86,000.” BTC’s price hovered around $86,950 at 2 pm ET. That’s down 5% in the past 24 hours. It’s a 9% drop from seven days ago and a 17% decrease over the last month. Trading volumes remain near year-to-date lows and slightly above pre-election levels, Engel and Flynn added.